Analysts say al Qaeda may nevertheless hit a recruitment ceiling in Syria. In Iraq the deeply unpopular U.S. occupation helped al Qaeda spread its global Jihadist ideology, but there is no such recruiting sergeant in Syria.

Another drawback for the group, says Benotman, is the memory of the barbaric violence of al Qaeda in Iraq and its killing of so many Muslim civilians. He says most Salafist groups in Syria - even if their goal is to create an Islamic state - have been determined to keep their distance from al Qaeda because they are not motivated by global jihad.